Many of us in the industry have noted the slowdown in product introductions by the pharmaceutical industry. The statistics bear this out. In 1996, there were over 50 new chemical entity approvals by the US FDA. Since then, the number of approvals per year has declined steadily to around 20 in 2002, with a climb back into the 30s in 2004. Analysts and pundits have blamed the blockbuster mentality, inefficient R&D processes, and a realization that we sometimes simply don't have a clue as to what is happening in a complex biological system.
Or, is it all as bad as we think? The August 1 issue of Drug Discovery Today (subscription required; individual articles available for purchase here) has a fascinating analysis on the subject. The authors (2 senior scientists from Pfizer) decided to analyze the approvals from 1939 to 2003, arguing that a much longer time frame is required because the development and approval process can take such a long time.
Note to VCs: Approval may take a long time, but exits may be much shorter. But, I digress...
The authors make two very interesting observations:
1. They note that approvals are cyclical over the long term, and upward trends are driven partially by changes in regulation. For instance, the 1992 FDA reforms (PDUFA) enabled the FDA to bring in more staff and process applications faster, resulting in the peak of 1996. Conversely, increasing interest by the FDA in cardiotoxicity in 1998 drove the slowdown in approvals. I'll buy the PDUFA stimulus argument, but I'm not entirely convinced that interest in cardiotox alone drove a decline in approvals. However, it's an interesting notion.
2. If you look at approvals per decade, the most recent one (1995-2004) has been very productive, resulting in 307 approvals versus 220 during the decade of 1985-1994. No other decade has come close to the '95-'04 period. Similarly, drug launches in the last period (381) far exceeded any other decade (242 during the '55-'64 period). So, over a longer time horizon, the industry has had its most productive decade ever. This is in spite of the rapidly rising costs of performing R&D.
It's an interesting notion. What the article only begins to discuss is the Return on Investment for all this innovation. The authors are essentially saying that if the industry spends more, and if the FDA has the capacity to process approvals, then the industry can commercialize more and more products. However, the challenge remains for the industry to figure out how to hold spending steady while improving approval rates in a increasingly globally competitive industry.
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