Let me first wish all of you a safe, healthy, and prosperous 2006!
It seems as if everyone else with a blog has predictions for 2006. So, I'll simply follow suit with a few of my own.
Diagnostics - I think we will continue to see more news surrounding diagnostics, especially from companies seeking to co-develop diagnostic/monitoring tests with therapeutics. Most of these will likely come from small, innovative companies. Look towards the FDA for more guidance this year.
Vaccines - I think we'll continue to see an increase in announcements surrounding novel vaccines in development. They may not be billion dollar products, but certainly very successful. We might see a big pharma company (Merck? Pfizer?) may some acquisitions in vaccine development companies.
Venture Capital - I think we'll continue to see an increase in the number of smaller, niche funds with narrow industry and/or geographic focus. While the mega funds get all the attention, these smaller funds will post impressive gains when they close out in 10 years.
Big Pharma/Big Biotech Woes - Here's an easy one...they'll continue, and they'll get even worse. Will Merck end the year without being merged into Schering-Plough? I'm not so sure. Is this a good time to short PFE? Which of the major biotechs will face litigation? Genentech? Amgen?
Go East - We'll see more and more start ups and development-stage companies strike development and/or commercialization agreements with companies in Europe, India, China, and Australia. The Bentley/Biocon agreement I wrote about recently is one example of this. We may even see some VC funds bring venture partners with international experience to help portfolio companies facilitate this.
Markets - I think the US markets will continue their sideways movement. We'll see a 5% or less gain on the Dow and NASDAQ.
Web 2.0 - More blather, little real innovation. In my mind, the widespread usage of Internet Telephony was the biggest story in 2005. The rest is just window dressing. I'm not sure what Microsoft Vista will do to change all this, other than tax our CPUs even further. Having a Google-like, built-in, efficient search function is a must.
Personal - Every year, in lieu of a resolution, I choose a theme for the year. I try to keep it to 1-3 words so it's easy to remember. Last year's theme was "Take the plunge" because I left my full time job to fly solo. This year, it will be "Resolve". Why? Because I am working on a few initiatives/business opportunities, but some will invariably fail. Others might succeed. Perhaps all will fail. One way or another, I want to resolve all of these fairly soon, and focus my energies and resources appropriately.
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