I digress from my usual life science-related banter to post a few words on oil.
There’s an interesting article in today’s Falls Church News Press on how the Saudi’s can react to a US pull out of Iraq. The article discusses an earlier Op-Ed piece in last week’s Washington Post.
Take a look at the Washington Post piece, then the Falls Church News Press piece. Of interest is the claim that the Saudi’s could devastate Iran by flooding the market with oil, driving prices downward and devastating the Iranian economy. Quote:
If Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half, the kingdom could still finance its current spending. But it would be devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today's high prices. The result would be to limit Tehran's ability to continue funneling hundreds of millions each year to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere.
Anyone who follows these issues closely knows that this is rubbish. The Saudi's cannot increase production far beyond their 9 million barrels per day. If anything, cutting production would help give Ghawar and their other major fields some much needed rest. Cutting production, of course, would hurt the US and other oil importers, but it would remind the World that Saudi Arabia can still speak softly and carry an enormous stick. Quote:
Could a major cutback in Saudi oil production bring down America? Maybe not, but it sure could do a lot of harm. The most blatant action would be cut their oil production in half. Taking 4-5 million barrels a day off the world oil market would get everybody's attention very quickly. Oil prices would certainly go well over $100 per barrel. In short order, the US and world economies would suffer greatly.
Thus:
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We are going to be in Iraq for a long long time. Our current situation will be the status quo.
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So long as we continue to drive our cars and trucks and refuse to invest in wind and solar, we will continue to be at the mercy of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, and other net oil exporters with unstable governments.
What we also need to keep in mind is that conservation needs to be discussed in a geopolitical context. Too often, we hear about conservation as a way to conserve and protect the environment, i.e., the ozone layer, water pollution, etc. The reality is that we as a society have not responded to conservation in an environmental context. We still drive, we still pollute our air, and we still tolerate it. However, placing this discussion in a geopolitical context, where oil and gas prices visibly and quickly rise in response to events thousands of miles away, will, in my view, spur all of us to conserve much more than we have in the past.
UPDATE: Extraordinarily interesting parallel drawn by Andrew Sullivan:
The major powers in the Middle East, in other words, are on the verge of behaving like the major powers in Europe centuries ago: they will act as expressions of national interest but also of sectarian theology...The difference between now and the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries in Europe is that this regional war within a divided monotheism will take place in a time of vastly greater technological capacity for destruction…So what took Europe two centuries may take the Middle East a decade.
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